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From low pressure area to very severe cyclonic storm: Here’s how IMD tracked Cyclone Vardah

New Delhi: A small dot marked on the screens of weathermen at the IMD signalled to them that a very severe cyclonic storm was building up in the South Andaman Sea, nine days ahead of the landfall of ‘Vardah’ that ravaged coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

The dot on the screen signified pressure movement over a particular area, which had the potential of snowballing into a cyclone. Weathermen at the IMD’s Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in New Delhi, who monitor any slight change in weather patterns around India, especially in the cyclone-prone Bay of Bengal, realised on 3 December that a low pressure area was being formed near the South Andaman Sea.

PTI

PTI

The pressure belt had traversed from the South China Sea, flowing over Thailand and Vietnam which had reduced its speed considerably due to its contact with the land. “So, as soon as it reached the South Andman Sea, it again got traction. The warm water in the Indian Ocean and the South Andaman Sea gave it momentum and then started the process of forming a low pressure area. We realised that there was an anti-clockwise pattern, the wind speed around it had increased more than other parts of the sea,” said M Mohapatra, Additional Director General (Services) with the India Meteorological Department, who has been in the business of forecasting cyclones. He was also the head of Cyclone Warning Division during Phailin and Hudhud.

September to December is also the time when weathermen at the Cyclone Warning Division of the IMD avoid taking leaves. For them, this is cyclone season. Realising that the low pressure area was developing into something stronger, the officials started gathering more data, pressing into service IMD’s two doppler radars at Chennai and Machilipatnam, coastal automatic weather stations and manned observatories, besides its buoys in the sea.

Satellite images from INSAT-3D and Met services of Thailand and Malaysia were also used. With constant hourly updates, the data gathered was then coalesced, a usual practise. After analysis and clearance from senior meteorologists, a small dot was marked to track its path.

With every passing day, the low pressure area became more intense. On 6 December, it turned into a depression and graduated to deep depression the very next day.

Since then there was daily monitoring and alert reports being sent to the Andaman and Nicobar Administration, and state governments of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Puducherry and Kerala.

It was declared a cyclonic storm on the morning of 8 December and became a severe cyclonic storm on the midnight of December 9. Vardah was finally declared a very severe cyclonic storm on the evening of 10 December.

First Published On : Dec 19, 2016 17:52 IST

Low-intensity earthquake in Arunachal

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>A low intensity earthquake was reported this morning at a place in Upper Siang district close to the Indo-China border.According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD),the slight intensity earthquake occured at 7.46 AM and the Richter scale readings showed the magnitude of the tremor was 3.8.The depth of the occurence was 106 km. The epicentre of the earthquake was recorded at Lat 28.6 degree North and Long 94.9 degree East which is around 116 km from district headquarter Yingkiong.No loss of life or damage to property has been reported so far, state Chief Secretary Shakuntala Gamlin told PTI after taking stock of the situation from district officers.She has directed officers to be on their toes to assess the situation properly and keep her posted continuously.

Two dead in Uttar Pradesh, as cold wave sweeps across north India

New Delhi: Cold wave conditions continued in parts of north India, with two lives lost in Uttar Pradesh, although the capital Delhi experienced pleasant weather.

Cold wave persisted throughout the country. AP file imageCold wave persisted throughout the country. AP file image

Cold wave persisted throughout the country. AP file image

The national capital witnessed a pleasant day, with a minimum of 10.4 degrees and maximum of 24.3 degrees Celsius, a notch above the season’s average. However, shallow foggy conditions in the morning led to cancellation of 13 trains. Flight operations remained normal at the Indira Gandhi International airport.

Two persons died, allegedly due to cold in Uttar Pradesh’s Barabanki district while shallow to moderate fog continued at a few places in the state. According to the met department, night temperatures fell in Agra and was appreciably below normal in Lucknow and Gorakhpur, and remained normal in remaining divisions of Uttar Pradesh.

Fog also played spoilsport in parts of Punjab and Haryana, disrupting normal life, even as minimum temperatures hovered above normal levels in the region.

Amritsar was the coldest place in the two states registering 6.8 degrees Celsius; Chandigarh settled at 9.9 degrees, three above normal; the minimum temperature at Karnal was 10 degrees.

Rail, road and air traffic were affected due to poor visibility in the states, officials said. The northern state of Rajasthan also reeled under cold wave conditions, with the minimum temperature dipping to 6.9 degrees Celsius. The capital city of Jaipur recorded a minimum of 11.2 degrees Celsius, a fall by 3.5 degrees from the previous day. The met said a further dip in temperature is predicted in the state in next 24 hours.

Bihar, meanwhile, experienced a warm day with the sun shining bright as both maximum and minimum temperatures increased.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said global warming was responsible for milder winter in the northern parts this season. “With temperatures being recorded above normal levels in several parts of north India, global warming is one of the major reasons for a milder winter this season,” it said.

First Published On : Dec 15, 2016 20:28 IST

Cylone Vardah LIVE: Storm unlikely to weaken after landfall; air and rail travel hit

Dec 12, 2016

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New Delhi: Cyclonic storm Vardah, which was earlier expected to weaken considerably, may not see its intensity going down when it makes landfall near Chennai on Monday. According to the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department, (IMD), Vardah, which is currently, a very severe cyclonic storm, will weaken, but only to a severe cyclonic storm.

Cyclone Vardah over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.Cyclone Vardah over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

Cyclone Vardah over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

The earlier forecast made by the IMD was that it would weaken into a cyclonic storm, thereby reducing its intensity considerably. At 9.30 am, the cyclone was lay centered around 105 kms east-northeast of Chennai.

By the time it makes a landfall, its wind speed is expected to be 100-110 kilometres per hours with winds gusting up to 120 kmph. The wind speed during a very severe cyclonic storm is 120 to 130 kmph. In a severe cyclonic storm the wind speed is somewhere between 110 to 80 kilometres per hour. One of the major reasons for destruction in any cyclone is the wind velocity, apart from heavy to heavy rains and flooding.

Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry is very likely during 36 hrs. The rainfall intensity will increase gradually becoming heavy to very heavy rainfall (7-19 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (20 centimetres) over Chennai, Thiruvallur and Kanchipuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Nellore and Prakasam districts of Andhra Pradesh on 12 December, the IMD said.

Tidal wave of about one metre height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of Chennai, Thiruvallur and Kanchipuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Nellore districts of Andhra Pradesh during the time of landfall.

With inputs from PTI

First Published On : Dec 12, 2016 11:48 IST

Cyclone Vardah: Torrential rains lash coastal districts of Tamil Nadu

Chennai: Heavy rains coupled with squally winds on Monday lashed the northern coastal districts of Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, as very severe cyclonic storm ‘Vardah’ was expected to make landfall this afternoon. Vardah lay 220 kilometres east-northeast of Chennai and 290 kilometre east-southeast of Nellore, the Meteorological office said.

IMD_1IMD_1

“The system is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually while moving towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts,” the office said.

“It is very likely to cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts, close to Chennai as a cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 80 to 90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph by 12th December 2016 afternoon,” it said.

Heavy rains lashed Chennai, Tiruvallore and Kancheepuram districts since early morning even as squally winds were witnessed in these districts. Power supply was suspended in many parts of these regions as a precautionary measure.

The armed forces have been asked to be on standby with the amy, navy and air force prepared to be deployed anytime as and when required. People in low-lying areas have been asked to move to safer zones even as various arms of the government were prepared to meet any eventuality. Flight services were so far operating smoothly, airport officials said.

First Published On : Dec 12, 2016 09:47 IST

Cyclone Nada weakening but heavy rainfall predicted over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry: IMD

The Indian Meteorological Department has said that cyclone Nada is weakening as it heads towards the the south of Cuddalore over the Tamil Nadu coast.

Cyclone. 380

Cyclone NADA. IMD

The cyclone is very likely to move west-northwestward, weaken gradually into a deep depression during next 12 hours and cross the north Tamil Nadu coast between Vedaranniyam and Puducherry, south of Cuddalore by the early hours of 2 December, stated the bulletin issued by IMD at 8.30 pm on Wednesday.

The IMD has predicted moderate to light rainfall at most places but has issued a warning that heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next 48 hours. In Kerela, moderate to light rainfall is expected on 2 and 3 December with chances of heavy rainfall at isolated places.

During the next 24 hours, stormy winds of 45 to 65 kilometres per hour will prevail along and off the coasts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

IMD has issued a warning to the farmers to not venture into the sea along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts as the sea condition is expected to be rough to very rough during the next 24 hours.

First Published On : Dec 1, 2016 12:19 IST

Cyclonic storm likely to hit Tamil Nadu coast on December 2

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>A cyclonic storm is likely to hit Tamil Nadu coast between Vedaranniyam and Chennai by December 2, the India Meteorological Department on Wednesdya said.According to Cyclone Warning Division of the IMD, satellite imagery indicates a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal.It currently lays centred about 1070 km east-southeast of Chennai, 1030 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 720 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka).”The system is very likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Vedaranniyam and Chennai by the morning of December 2,” the IMD said.The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into sea along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from evening of November 30 onwards. Those at sea are advised to return to the coast.Light to moderate rainfall at many places is very likely to commence over coastal Tamil Nadu from the evening of November 30.The intensity would increase with rainfall at most places and “heavy to very heavy rainfall” at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and isolated “heavy to very heavy rainfall” over interior Tamil Nadu on December 1 and 2, the IMD said.Light to moderate rainfall would occur at many places with isolated heavy falls very likely over Kerala on December 2 and 3.”Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence to prevail along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from December 1. Sea condition would be rough to very rough along off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from December 1 onward,” the IMD added.

Tamil Nadu: Heavy rains forecast in coastal areas, Puducherry from 1 December

Chennai: A well-marked low pressure over Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean is likely to concentrate into a depression in the next 24 hours, and bring heavy rainfall to coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbouring Puducherry from 1 December, MeT office said on Tuesday.

The forecast indicates revival of the north east monsoon, which has been rather inactive, especially in northern parts of the state since its onset in October end.

Representational image. Getty imagesRepresentational image. Getty images

Representational image. Getty images

“Yesterday’s [Monday’s] well-marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean persists. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours,” the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) here said.

Accordingly, strong winds and heavy to very heavy rainfall are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on 1 and 2 December, it said, and advised fishermen against venturing into sea, starting Wednesday.

“Those who are already in the deep sea are advised to return to the coast immediately,” it added.

The northeast monsoon brings the bulk of Tamil Nadu’s annual rainfall (48 percent) and became active in October end.

However, several parts of the state, especially in the north, including the state capital are yet to receive significant spells of rain, causing concern.

This is in contrast to the situation last year during the monsoon, when four northern coastal districts — Chennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallore and Cuddalore — suffered a deluge following unprecedented downpour. Tuticorin in southern Tamil Nadu too had faced the monsoon fury.

First Published On : Nov 29, 2016 16:35 IST

Mercury at sub-zero levels in Kashmir, Kargil is coldest

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Most places in Kashmir continued to reel under intense cold with the night temperature staying below the freezing point, while Kargil town in Ladakh region registered the season’s coldest night at minus 9.2 degrees Celsius. Srinagar recorded a low of minus 2.5 degrees Celsius – four degrees below normal during this part of the season, an official of the Meteorological Department here said, adding it was, however, a slight improvement from yesterday’s minus 2.7 degrees Celsius. Kargil was the coldest recorded place in Jammu and Kashmir as it witnessed the lowest night temperature of the season so far, the official said. The Leh town nearby also shivered at minus 8.4 degrees Celsius as the cold wave has hit the region owing to a prolonged dry spell.The minimum in Kupwara, in north Kashmir, also rose from minus 2.7 degrees Celsius yesterday to settle at minus 2.3 degrees Celsius, while Kokernag town in south was the only recorded place in the Valley where the night temperature remained above freezing point at 0.5 degree Celsius. The official said the hill resort of Pahalgam in south Kashmir recorded the minimum of minus 4.2 degrees Celsius, making it the coldest place in the Valley.The famous ski-resort of Gulmarg in north Kashmir registered the low of minus 0.4 degrees Celsius against yesterday’s minus 0.6 degrees Celsius, he said.The minimum temperature in the south Kashmir town of Qazigund was minus 2.2 degrees Celsius – same as that of the previous night. The official forecast mainly dry weather till November 20 but predicted light rainfall the next day.

Impact of human activity on extreme weather events on rise

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Anthropogenic climate change had an increased impact on the occurrence of several extreme weather events recorded between 2011-2015, especially those involving extreme high temperatures, a scientific assessment by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed. According to WMO, the impact of human induced climate change on such events has increased by a factor of 10. Though not all extreme events bear a stamp of anthropogenic climate change, several of them have a direct relation to it while some have an indirect relation, which manifest in increasing its risks.”The influence of climate change on the daily lives of people has been clear due to the multiplication and intensification of extreme events, including heatwaves to record rainfall and damaging floods,” said P.Taalas, Secretary-General, WMO.In India, the 2013 Uttarakhand flood disaster and the 2015 heat wave were the two biggest extreme weather events which killed over 8,000 people, the WMO noted. While the report does not attribute a direct relation between anthropogenic climate change and the Uttarakhand disaster, it has said that the largest human impact has been on rising occurrences of extreme heat, as seen during the 2015 heat wave.The 2015 Indian sub-continent heat wave that killed over 4,000 in India and Pakistan was the worst heat wave globally in the past five years, the report said. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US, assessed 2015, a strong El Niño year, as the world’s driest year over land since 1993″The most consistent influence of anthropogenic climate change has been on the rising occureence of extreme heat varying from a duration of few days to a full year. In some studies, the probability of the observed event has increased 10 times or more as a result of human induced climate change.”The 2015 heatwave, though shorter in duration than previous ones, was more intense and saw temperatures rise to nearly 50 degree Celsius. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha were the worst hit states. The WMO noted that, “although temperatures near or above 45°C are not uncommon at the that time of year (summer) in many parts of interior India, such temperatures during the 2015 pre-monsoon region in extended to near coastal regions that do not normally experience such extreme heat, including Andhra Pradesh in Eastern India, where the heat was also accompanied by very high humidity.”In terms of casualties, the worst single short-period event of the 2011-2015 period was Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in the Philippines in November 2013. The death toll for Haiyan (Yolanda) was estimated at over 7,800 people, with 4.1 million people displaced.

Delhi: Air quality oscillates between ‘severe’ and ‘very poor’

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The hazardous smog, worst in 17 years, which has kept the national capital shrouded since Diwali lingered on on Friday, as the overall air quality oscillated between ‘severe’ and ‘very poor’ categories. A senior IMD official said the pollutants are barely dispersing due to calm wind movement and foggy conditions. The situation might improve in the next three-four days, he said.The 24-hour-average (rolling) of PM 2.5 and PM 10 were 225 and 389 micrograms per cubic metre respectively as per SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research) at 6 PM. Six out of eight stations of SAFAR had air quality in the very poor category while two had an AQI of severe.However, the peak levels of pollution continued to violate the safe limits by over 10 times, even in densely populated areas like RK Puram and border areas like Anand Vihar. At 10.30 AM, RK Puram had PM 10 (coarse respirable particles) at over 1,000 micrograms per cubic metre, way above the 24-hour safe limit of 100.
ALSO READ Watch: 3 days after Diwali, Delhi remains shrouded in smog; air quality ‘severe’At Anand Vihar, PM 2.5 (finer and deadlier) peaked at 522 micrograms per cubic metre at 7.30 AM, as against its prescribed standard of 60 micrograms per cubic metre. “As per the model sensitivity simulations, it is predicted that even if winds becomes 3km/hr, pollution could go down to Very Poor in a daytime provided winds remain North-Easterly,” SAFAR had said.On Thursday, green body CSE had said that according to the Indian Meteorological Department, the city is experiencing the the worst smog with very poor visibility in the last 17 years. Prolonged exposure to severe category air may affect healthy people and seriously impact those with existing diseases while very poor category may cause respiratory illness. Children, elderly and the sick are considered most vulnerable to the harmful effects of hazardous air.

Severe drought looming over Kerala

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>There has been a sharp decrease of rainfall to the tune of 34 per cent during the south-west monsoon, according to figures released by the Indian Meteorological Department here.From June 1 this year to September 30, Kerala received 1352.3 mm rains against the normal rainfall of 2039.7 mm, a deficiency of 34 per cent.There has been no rain in October and if this situation continues, there will be drought-like situation, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram Director S Sudevan, said.”If the North East Monsoon fails then there will be problems in different sectors– Agriculture, Power etc”, he said.Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has also said that the state was heading for a “severe” drought as Kerala had received deficient rains in the south-west monsoon.Though the north-east monsoon was yet to set in, the state had not received pre-monsoon showers, he said.”A huge danger is lurking in the state in the form of drought as the south west monsoon was deficient”, Vijayan had said at a function yesterday.”If this situation continues, the state is heading for a severe drought. We need to take precautions,” he had said.To tackle the situation, the government was also keen to encourage rain water harvesting, he said.There has been an average reduction of 22 per cent water in the state’s dams when compared to the water storage in September last year.The state was also gearing up to take measures to tackle scarcity of drinking water which is likely to be faced by the state due to deficient monsoon, according to Water Resources Minister Mathew P Thomas.The government also has plans to rejuvenate at least 10,000 private temple ponds of the total 40,000 in the state.The Chief Minister had convened a high level meeting on Oct 13 to work out plans to meet the impending drought situation.Kerala is now pinning all hopes on the north east monsoon which is yet to set in, he said.

Deep depression over Bay of Bengal, likely to turn into cyclonic storm

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Fishermen were asked by the IMD on Sunday to be cautions while venturing into sea along the Odisha coast in view of a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal, with the system likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm.A depression over east-central Bay of Bengal moved east-north-eastwards, intensified into a deep depression on Sunday and lay centered over east-central Bay of Bengal, about 950 km east-southeast of Gopalpur, the MeT Department said.The system is most likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm in 24 hours and move north-eastwards to reach close to north Myanmar coast shortly. Thereafter, it will recurve initially north-northwestwards skirting Myanmar coast and then north-westwards towards the of north-west Bay of Bengal, it said.While sporadic rainfall may occur in 11 districts in the central and north Odisha on October 26 and 27, weather elsewhere in the state would be generally dry during the next 24 hours, but the sky would be cloudy, Director of the Meteorological Centre here, Sarat Chandra Sahu said.However, Distant Cautionary Signal Number One (DC-I) has been hoisted at all ports in Odisha and fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into interior and distant sea along Odisha coast during the period.

Frequent extreme rain behind rising incidents of floods in 2016

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Nearly 150 events of extremely heavy rainfall of more than 200mm each, occurred during this year’s southwest monsoon between June and September, indicating the high frequency of such events, a post-monsoon report of India Meteorological Department (IMD) revealed. These extremely heavy rainfall events triggered large-scale flooding and flash floods across the country, killing hundreds across the country. India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) categorizes rainfall between 64.5mm and 124.4mm as heavy rain while rainfall between 124.5 mm and 244.4mm is categorized as very heavy rainfall. The extreme rainfall events were concentrated in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, parts of Rajasthan, Konkan region and western Maharashtra. The trend of these events occurring in shorter durations is becoming more frequent and intense, leading to incidents such as the Mahad bridge collapse. In August this year, a colonial era bridge on the Mumbai-Goa bridge national highway collapsed as strong currents in Savitri river flowing beneath it shook its foundations and plunged two transport buses and private vehicles in it, killing over 20. This incident was triggered following intense downpour upstream in Mahabaleshwar, where Savitri river originates. In fact, the data that has come from IMD’s report shows that there were five extremely heavy rain events in the hill-town of Mahabaleshwar between July 29 and August 6. Meteorologists and weather scientists said that many recent studies have indicated that there has been a rise in heavy and extreme rain events in India and even globally. Anthropogenic climate change has been cited as one of the chief reasons behind this rising trend. “With rising temperatures, the water bearing capacity of atmosphere increases and more moisture is drawn from the oceans. The result is sudden precipitation and this phenomenon has been documented globally,” said KJ Ramesh, director-general, IMD.According to IMD’s analysis of rainfall data between 2009 and 2013, Odisha, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala have all witnessed heavy rainfall days for more than 20 days during the monsoon season. Odisha, Konkan, Coastal Karnataka Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya recorded an average of 70 heavy rainfall events in that period.“The seasonal monsoon data has also shown that the number of light to moderate rainfall days is declining since 1980’s, compared to the years before that,” added Ramesh.In its report, the IMD has also reflected on its monsoon forecast, that was off-mark. The IMD had predicted that the monsoon will be 106% or above-normal in the June-September period, but the actual monsoon turned out to be 97% or normal. “Prior to June, most of the climate forecasting models were indicating high probability for the development of La Niña during the second half of the monsoon season, which was supposed to favour normal to above normal rainfall over India.However, that did not happen,” the report said. The opposite of El Nino weather phenomenon wherein warmer than usual Pacific waters trigger droughts in South Asia, La Niña usually brings heavy rainfall in South Asia. The report added that with La Niña not developing against the expectation of global El Niño/ La Niña forecast and below normal rainfall during June and August, due to unfavorable phases of intra-seasonal activity, caused the most of the operational forecasts to overestimate to the actual rainfalls.

Uri attack prompts govt to plan integrated control centre to tackle emergencies

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Getting wiser after the terror attack on Army brigade headquarters in Uri, the government is planning to constitute state of the art integrated control centres (ICC) in both the home ministry and defence ministry to get real time information of any exigency and plan a quick response to it.The integrated control centre (ICC) will have nodes from all the key agencies and departments like Central Water Commission, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Geological Survey of India (GSI) Army, Navy, Air Force and national disaster response force (NDRF). Its stakeholders will also include ministries of PMO, agriculture, civil aviation, railways, civil supplies, defence and home etc. that will be put on prompt SMS groups for quick action in time of any exigency. Headed by a senior official, preferably of the level of joint secretary, the ICC shall have at least 10-12 domain expert from every related field on the 24X7 basis, sources said.“The idea is to have a seamless sharing of information in real time of any disaster natural or manmade, terror attack, big accident or riot from village/local level to the Centre and responding to it in quickest possible time. To do this we have to do away with the current control room and disaster management centre and replace them with state of art studio having equipment and domain experts,” said a senior official. Sources said that the ICC has been approved in principle by the home ministry and would be implemented soon by subsuming the control centres at national disaster management authority (NDMA) and in-house disaster management. “The two full-fledged integrated control centres in home and defence ministries will be used for reaching a unified decision at central government level including giving the commands to NDRF, Army and sending requests to friendly countries for international requirements,” sources said. Care will be taken to make it fully professional and SOPs are being drafted so that it has work culture where not a single mishap goes unnoticed and is attended to promptly, added the sources.

Uri attack prompts government to have integrated control centres

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Getting wiser after the terror attack on Army brigade headquarters in Uri, the government is planning to constitute state of the art integrated control centres (ICC) in both the home ministry and defence ministry to get real time information of any exigency and plan quick response to it.The integrated control centre (ICC) will have nodes from all the key agencies and departments like Central Water Commission, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Geological Survey of India (GSI) Army, Navy, Air Force and national disaster response force (NDRF).Its stakeholders will also include ministries of PMO, agriculture, civil aviation, railways, civil supplies, defence and home etc. that will be put on prompt SMS groups for quick action in time any exigency.Headed by a senior official, preferably of the level of joint secretary, the ICC shall have at least 10-12 domain expert from every related field on 24X7 basis, sources said.”The idea is to have a seamless sharing of information in real time of any disaster natural or manmade, terror attack, big accident or riot from village/local level to the Centre and responding to it in quickest possible time. To do this we have to do away with the current control room and disaster management centre and replace them with state of art studio having equipment and domain experts,” said a senior official.Sources said that the ICC has been approved in principle by the home ministry and would be implemented soon by subsuming the control centres at national disaster management authority (NDMA) and in house disaster management.”The two full-fledged integrated control centres in home and defence ministries will be used for reaching at a unified decision at central government level including giving command to NDRF, Army and sending requests to friendly countries for international requirements, sources said.Care will be taken to make it fully professional and SOPs are being drafted so that it has work culture where not a single mishap goes unnoticed and is attended to promptly, added the source.

Mumbaikars, brace yourselves for two more days of rain

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Rains continued to lash Mumbai as this season’s last leg of spell brought temperature down by few notches. MeT department officials have predicted the downpour will continue for the next two days.”There is an upper air circulation over Konkan Goa and parts of Gujarat, this is causing the rainfall,” director of Indian Meteorological Department, Mumbai, VK Rajeev said.”This spell of rain is likely to last two more days with intermittent rains or shower,” he added.Earlier, this upper air circulation was over the Marathwada and adjoining region and is now moving towards Gujarat, Rajeev said.According to Regional MeT department, rainfall recorded between October 1 and October 5 (till 8.30 am) at Coloba (main city) was 59.8 mm, while Santacruz (western suburbs) recorded 58.3 mm. Santacruz observatory recorded the maximum temperature of 26.6 degrees Celsius and minimum of 22.4 degrees Celsius, while the Colaba observatory recorded maximum and minimum at 26.0 and 22.2 degrees Celsius respectively.

Hyderabad rains: Telangana CM Rao monitors situation; NDRF, Army on standby

Hyderabad: With heavy rains causing havoc in the capital and other parts of Telangana, Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has ordered officials to set up control rooms in all the districts to reach out to marooned people with necessary relief.

A team of Army personnel on Saturday visited some of the marooned areas in Alwal in Ranga Reddy district to asses the situation.

According to an official statement issued by the CM’s office at midnight, a 60-member National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) team has been kept on the standby in the city for necessary rescue operations.

Hyderabad: People pushing a car through a flooded road at Bellapure after heavy downpour in Hyderabad on Friday. PTI Photo (PTI9_23_2016_000269B) *** Local Caption ***Hyderabad: People pushing a car through a flooded road at Bellapure after heavy downpour in Hyderabad on Friday. PTI Photo (PTI9_23_2016_000269B) *** Local Caption ***

People pushing a car through a flooded road at Bellapure after heavy downpour in Hyderabad on Friday. PTI

“Army personnel are also available as and when requested,” the release said.

Some of the low lying areas in Hyderabad are still cut off from the rest of the city, even as Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and some NGOs are offering essential food items such as milk towards relief of those affected.

The CM also instructed the officials to take necessary steps to prevent spread of communicable diseases.

According to a senior official of GHMC, Army officials met GHMC Commissioner Janardhan Reddy during the wee hours of Saturday and their forces are prepared to swing into action as and when called for.

The district administration of Rangareddy, Khammam, Warangal and Medak besides GHMC have declared holiday for educational institutions today also.

On Friday, the Telangana government had said that it has kept two choppers ready to move people from low lying areas in the city, if necessary.

Besides, four persons were killed and six others injured in separate rain-related incidents in Medak district on Friday.

According to the weather report issued by the Indian Meteorological Department today, “heavy to very heavy” are likely to occur in isolated places in Telangana.

Monsoon heading for a ‘normal’ performance: IMD

<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The country’s long-period monsoon rainfall for the June to September period is heading for a ‘normal’ performance, in contrast to India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) annual forecast, said KJ Ramesh, director-general, IMD, on Monday. In April this year, IMD, the country’s state-run weather forecasting agency had said that the country is likely to receive above-normal rainfall, with a quantitative forecast of 106 per cent and an error margin of +/- 5. But, with just ten days before monsoon comes to a close, the countrywide monsoon deficit stands at 5 per cent.”Our assessment shows that long-period monsoon rainfall is likely to be in the normal range. One more spell of monsoon rainfall is likely to occur across Odisha, Jharkhand and neighbouring regions due to a low-pressure area,” said Ramesh. The IMD categorizes rainfall in the 96-104% long-period average range as normal and rainfall between 104-110% of LPA as above normal.Ramesh added that the neutral condition of La Nina weather phenomenon resulted in subdued rainfall during August. “As per our forecast, the La Nina weather phenomenon was going to strengthen at the end of August, resulting in excess rainfall during September. But, La Nina remained neutral and we witnessed a lean phase in August,” added Ramesh.The opposite of El Nino weather phenomenon wherein warmer than usual Pacific waters trigger droughts in south Asia, La Nina usually brings heavy rainfall in South Asia. According to IMD, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Central and Eastern Gujarat, parts of Assam and Uttar Pradesh have received below normal rainfall.

Japan on alert as two typhoons expected to make landfall

Tokyo: Japan was on alert Sunday for high winds, heavy rain and landslides as the country braces for two typhoons on course to make landfall.

Typhoon Kompasu was expected to hit northern Hokkaido island Sunday evening, packing gusts up to 126 kilometres (80 miles) per hour, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Representational image. ReutersRepresentational image. Reuters

Representational image. Reuters

The storm, located in the Pacific some 100 kilometres (60 miles) southeast of Kamaishi city at 9:00 local time Sunday (0000 GMT), was already dumping heavy rain that has flooded rivers in Hokkaido.

The agency issued warnings for heavy rain, landslides and high waves in and around Hokkaido from Kompasu.

Typhoon Mindulle, located in the Pacific 170 kilometres (110 miles) west northwest of Chichijima island at 9:00 local time Sunday (0000 GMT), was heading north toward the Japanese main island of Honshu with gusts up to 126 kilometres per hour, the agency said.

Mindulle was expected to landfall in central Japan Monday morning, possibly close to Tokyo, the agency said.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Lionrock was in the Pacific south of the island of Shikoku, but was not projected to directly hit Japan, the agency said

Chart: Monsoon may be reviving but a rural recovery is unlikely this year

A much-needed revival in monsoon may have finally happened towards the end of June but experts still vary as to whether this will indeed result in a recovery in the rural economy.

According to the data from the Indian Meteorological Department, the rainfall deficit in the country has progressively decreased over the last three weeks.

ReutersReuters

Reuters

Overall the country’s deficit in the first two weeks of June was 25 percent of long period average. This decreased to 18 percent by the end of next week and further to 12 percent by 29 June.

Region wise, South Peninsula has witnessed the maximum rainfall. Here the monsoon has been consistently in surplus this year and as of 29 June the excess rainfall stood at 22 percent. Meanwhile, the widest deficit is in East and Northeast India – 27 percent as of 29 June.

However, experts are of the view that it may be too early to assess the evenness of rainfall distribution. It is the distribution that matters for the farm sector more than the overall rain situation.

However, there is a view that even if the rain fall and its distribution are normal this year, it may not be enough to repair the rural economy because the damage caused by the two back-to-back droughts is huge.

Mithilendu Jha, Associate Director, India Ratings & Research, said in a research note estimates for a complete recovery in the farm sector the country will need more than two favourable monsoons.

“Nearly 15 percent of tractor loans disbursed during 2014 and 2015 were overdue for more than three months as of March 2016. The average delinquency rate for close to 12 months seasoned loans was only 9 percent during 2009 amid deficient rainfall and low agri-GDP, and still it took nearly two years for the delinquency rate and agriculture output growth rate to completely normalise,” he said in the note.

Comparing 2015 with the 2009, another drought year, he says monsoon was deficient in 47 percent of subdivisions (as classified by the Met) last year compared with 64 percent in 2009. However, nearly half of these subdivisions have faced two consecutive deficient monsoons by 2015 unlike in 2009.

“…Unlike the 2009 downturn, the current cycle has so far seen almost five years of muted growth in not only production and price but also acreage and crop yields,” he says in the note.

During the 2009 slowdown, the production of all crops dropped 4 percent Y-o-Y. However, over 25 percent increase in minimum support price for both food grain and non-food grain crops and nearly 4% drop in key input cost (diesel and fertiliser) lessened farmers’ problems.

In 2014 and 2015, not only the production suffered but also the growth in minimum support price was low at a CAGR of below 3 percent. Even after factoring in the reduction in diesel prices in the last two years, farmers’ net profit has been growing at a CAGR of below 10 percent since 2014 and hence impact on farmers’ income has been more pronounced, the note says.

Data by Kishor Kadam

June ends with 11% rain deficit

In its first month, monsoon rainfall deficit in the country stands at 11 per cent below the long period average and the monsoon is now set to advance over Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Punjab and in the hill-states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. This year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, a week later than usual and the delay had a domino effect on its subsequent progress, Met officials said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>As per the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) extended fortnightly forecast, above normal rainfall is likely over north India during first week of July and over central India and western parts of the country during second week of July. The western coast, too, will receive above normal rainfall till July 10. In its second long-range forecast issued earlier this month, IMD had said that the monsoon will be bountiful in July at 107 per cent of the long-period average and even in the later months due to the La Nina weather phenomenon.Met officials said that the monsoon advanced in three phases since its onset. In the first phase, the it covered much of Kerala and the southern peninsula. In the second phase it covered parts of the western coast, up to Karwar.But, a lull in activity over the Arabian Sea halted the monsoon’s progress for a few days. Even as the Arabian Sea branch saw a lull, the Bay of Bengal branch brought significant rainfall to central India, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.”In the last week of June, monsoon picked up strength over the Arabian Sea and advanced speedily. Now, the conditions are favourable for monsoon’s advance over the remaining states,” said Sunitha Devi, director, weather section, IMD, Pune.According to IMD data, with 1213.8 mm rains, Goa has recorded maximum rainfall in June, followed by Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram. The least rainfall has happened in Gujarat, which has recorded a mere 30mm rains. During the last week of June, the southwest monsoon advanced into south Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh and some parts of east Rajasthan.

Incessant rains lash Mumbai; heavy spells predicted in 48 hrs

Rains continued to lash Mumbai for the third consecutive day on Saturday, slightly disrupting suburban train services, even as the Met department predicted heavy showers over the next two days in Mumbai, Konkan and Goa region.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also issued a warning to fishermen not to venture into the sea in the wake of forecast. “This good and sustained spell of rain is thanks to the offshore trough formed over the Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast. There is also an upper air cyclonic circulation developing over south of Gujarat and north Konkan,” IMD Mumbai director VK Rajeev said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Yesterday, the Colaba and Santa Cruz observatories in Mumbai recorded a rainfall of 26.8 mm and 50 mm respectively.The continuous downpour has affected the movement of local trains to some extent, as they are seen running at least 15 minutes behind their normal schedule, although no train cancellations have been reported so far.However, the downpour has not caused any major flight delays or cancellations.The incessant rains have brought down the temperature to an extent, with Colaba recording a minimum temperature of 25.8 degrees Celsius and Santa Cruz 24.2 degrees Celsius. PTI

Monsoon 18% below normal

Even as the monsoon has made speedy progress to most parts of the country, except Northwest, overall rainfall has been 18 per cent below normal while 30 per cent of the country has recorded deficient rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In meteorological parlance, the country is divided into 36 sub-divisions and of these 17 have received normal rainfall, 11 have received deficient rainfall, six recorded excess rain while two sub-divisions, in Gujarat, have recorded scanty rainfall. Sub-divisions in Central India; Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Vidarbha, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, have recorded rainfall 37 per cent below normal.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>IMD officials, though, said that the rainfall is likely to pick up as June draws to a close and monsoon will advance into remaining parts of the country in Northwest by Tuesday. As on Friday, the northern limit of monsoon pass through Veraval, Surat, Ratlam, Jhansi, Lucknow, Dehradun, Una and Jammu. “The conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of north Arabian sea and Gujarat state, remaining parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and most parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and East Rajasthan during next 3-4 days,” IMD said.Graphic: Dnyaneshwar JadhavMet officials said that the weather systems that formed over the Bay of Bengal moved westwards and gave more rainfall to central and western Maharashtra, resulting in below normal rainfall in Central India. “The normal rainfall, in regions that have recorded deficient rains, is high, but this year rains have not picked up yet. Regions on the west coast have seen more convective activity, and have thus recorded more rainfall that Central and eastern regions,” said Sunitha Devi, director, weather section, IMD, Pune. She added, “Rainfall is likely to pick up as June ends. As per our forecast, rainfall will be 107 per cent of long period average, that will make up for the deficient June rainfall.”

Bring out the umbrellas! IMD forecasts heavy rains in Goa tomorrow

The India Meteorological Department has forecast heavy rains in Goa on Saturday as the monsoon is expected to reach the coastal state.”The conditions are favourable for advancing of the monsoon. As per our forecast, it will set over Goa tomorrow (June 11),” Director of Goa Meteorological Centre V K Mini told PTI on Friday.The weather bulletin issued on Friday forecast that heavy rainfall is very likely to occur at isolated places over Goa today, tomorrow and day after tomorrow.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The MeT has warned fishermen against venturing out in the sea.”Winds will be westerly to south-westerly at a speed of 45-50 km per hour. Sea will be rough with westerly to south-westerly waves. “Fishermen are advised not to go out in the sea during the next 24 hours,” the weatherman said.

How monsoon rains lift India’s spirit and economy

The much awaited monsoon rains have arrived in India bringing cheer and raising hopes, writes Shivam Vij.

Monsoon arrives in country a week after normal onset

The long-awaited Southwest monsoon, that feeds much of India’s farms and is a big driver of the economy, has officially arrived in Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.Arriving eight days after the usual onset date of June 1, this year’s onset is the most delayed one since 2003, Met officials told dna. IMD officially announced monsoon’s arrival on Wednesday as prevailing weather has fulfilled the three conditions of rainfall across 14 stations of Kerala and coastal Karnataka, strong westerlies and outgoing longwave radiation.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>”The south westerly flow over southern Arabian Sea both deepened and strengthened. As a result, the cloudiness and rainfall has increased over Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep. Among the 14 stations, more than 60 per cent have received widespread rainfall on June 7 and 8,” said Sunitha Devi, director, weather section, IMD Pune. Along with much of Kerala’s coast, the monsoon has also advanced over parts of Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka. It is expected to make a speedy progress to remaining parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal Karnataka and some parts of south Andhra Pradesh.It is likely to arrive in Maharashtra in another 4-5 days while it will advance over Northern plains, including Delhi-NCR at the end of June or early July. The monsoon’s arrival has been long-awaited as the IMD has forecasted an above-normal and extended monsoon for this year, for the months of June-September. This comes on the back of successive below-par monsoon years. In 2015, the country also experienced one of the strongest El Niño’s in two decades that led to a monsoon deficit of 14.3 per cent and subsequently, a severe drought that affected 25 per cent of the country’s population.This year, IMD has also said that La Niña, a weather phenomenon marked by colder than Pacific waters, will result in an extended monsoon and the latter half, from August to September will see heavier rainfall. While the IMD, the country’s official weather forecasting department, announced monsoon’s onset on Wednesday, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services differed.It’s Chief Executive Officer Jatin Singh said on its website that the monsoon had arrived between May 28 and May 30. “The onset of monsoon, just like its other aspects, is a complex phenomenon involving extensive research. Generally, monsoon is declared after May 25. In fact, monsoon can be declared any time post May 10 and looking at its further progress can be withdrawn as well.”

Kerala: Met department confirms monsoon arrival, heavy rains claim one life

The South-West monsoon has hit Kerala, confirmed the Met Department on Wednesday.”The South-west monsoon has set in over Kerala and Lakshadweep,” said K Santosh, head of India Meteorological Department’s regional centre in Thiruvananthapuram.IMD now expects the monsoon to hit the other parts of India. A report in Mint states that the IMD declares the onset of monsoon if 60% of 14 tracking stations in Kerala and Karnataka report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for 48 hours. Criteria related to wind also need to be fulfilled. <!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Chief has stated that the severe weather conditions would continue in western and eastern parts of Rajasthan, western Haryana, some parts of Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh.Meanwhile, a 36-year-old man died following a landslip in Idukki district. Jobi John, former SFI Idukki district president, died and his mother was seriously injured when mounds of earth and rocks fell on their home following heavy rains at Vazhavara early today, police said. However, his father escaped unhurt and informed neighbours who engaged in rescue operation. The mother’s condition is stated to be serious and she has been taken to a hospital in Kochi for expert treatment.Thiruvananthapuram district authorities are taking precautionary steps like restricting flow of tourists to hill stations like Ponmudi in view of heavy rains. People are also being advised to avoid travelling during night on hilly roads.(With Agency inputs)

High tech edge to monsoon forecast: Here’s why India is spending $60 million on a new supercomputer

India’s forecasting of the monsoon – the crop-nourishing seasonal rains that are the lifeblood for farmers in the country of 1.3 billion people – is getting a high-tech makeover.Jettisoning a statistical method introduced under British colonial rule in the 1920s, India’s meteorology office is spending $60 million on a new supercomputer to improve the accuracy of one of the world’s most vital weather forecasts in time for next year’s rains.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The new system, based on a US model tweaked for India, requires immense computing power to generate three-dimensional models to help predict how the monsoon is likely to develop.Experts say better forecasting could help India raise its farm output by nearly 15%, by helping farmers tweak the best time to sow, irrigate or apply fertilizer to crops and if rains fail plan state-wide measures. This would be a major boon for a country already either the world’s biggest or second-biggest producer and consumer of rice, wheat, sugar and cotton.”If everything goes well, by 2017 we’ll make this dynamical model operational by replacing the statistical model,” said M. Rajeevan, the top scientist in the ministry of earth sciences, which oversees the weather office on a 30-acre campus in the heart of New Delhi.The June-September rains are relied on to replenish reservoirs, recharge aquifers and for half of all farmland that does not have irrigation.Many areas receive more than 70% of their annual rains during the monsoon and plentiful rains means more money in rural communities, sustaining some 600 million people and boosting demand for an array of goods and services.MELTING SNOWRajeevan declined to name the companies the bureau was talking to obtain the new supercomputer, but said it would be 10 times faster than the existing one supplied by IBM.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues forecasts for the country as a whole and five regions, though does not give separate ones for the country’s 29 states.”We didn’t adopt the dynamical model earlier because it was not able to forecast monsoons. Now, it can and with better results than the statistical model,” said Rajeevan.The existing model uses historical relationships between rainfall and six to eight predictors such as sea-surface temperatures and southeasterly winds over the Indian ocean.Because of India’s size, one national forecast is of little help to farmers spread across diverse climatic zones.”I’ll cherish the day they’ll come up with a forecast for my state. It’s going to mitigate our risks and help us plan our crop better,” said Dharmendra Kumar, whose farm is in Uttar Pradesh, a state roughly the size of the United Kingdom and with a bigger population than Brazil.The IMD, set up in 1875, produced its first monsoon forecast in 1886 after the famine of the 1870s.Back then, it relied on melting snow in the Himalayas to predict rains. Early forecasters also observed plants and animals, consulted almanacs and invoked Lord Indra, the rain God of Hindus.Now, about 5,000 IMD employees gather data, obtained from radar, observatories, ships, sensors and satellites, for the weather office, where staff peer at computer screens flickering with charts, graphs and multi-coloured maps of India.In 2015, the IMD accurately forecast a second straight drought year, in contrast to predictions of bountiful rains by Skymet, India’s only private forecaster.But the weather office failed to foresee the worst drought in nearly four decades in 2009 and, as this year’s monsoon starts, farmers hope its forecast of above-average rains will be right.”In the last one decade we’ve gained a greater degree of precision in forecasting rains, but monsoon still remains a very complex weather system which only God has the ability to understand fully,” Rajeevan said.

Southwest monsoon to hit Kerala on June 9: IMD

The South West monsoon is “very likely” to hit Kerala on June 9 following favourable conditions, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.”In view of the strengthening of cross equatorial flow and deepening of westerlies over South Arabian sea and development of feeble off-shore trough along Karnataka-Kerala coast, onset of (southwest) monsoon over Kerala is very likely by June 9,” IMD said in its mid-day bulletin.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Meanwhile, rains lashed many parts of Tamil Nadu in the last 24 hours ending 0830 hours today, the regional weather office said.Summer rains accompanied with lightning and thunder were witnessed in many parts of the state including Chennai, it said, adding, Sembarambakkam recorded the highest rainfall of five cm, followed by Chennai at four cm.The weather office forecast rain at a few places in South Tamil Nadu and over one or two places in the northern parts of the state for the next 48 hours.Thunderstorms were likely in Chennai during the period, it said.

Much-awaited southwest monsoon likely to hit Kerala in next 2 days: IMD

The much-awaited southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast in next two days.However, there is going to be “no significant” change in the temperatures in northwest India for the next five days, which is reeling under intense heat.”Conditions continue to remain favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala in next 48 hours,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The IMD had earlier said that monsoon should hit the Kerala coast on June 7, with an error margin of plus or minus four days.The MeT department has also predicted “heavy to very heavy rains” in coastal Karnataka and Kerala, Arunachal Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep.Thunderstorms accompanied with squall are very likely at isolated places over Telangana and north interior Karnataka.”Heavy to very heavy rains are also likely at isolated places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura,” it said.However, heatwave conditions are “very likely” to prevail over isolated places in Rajasthan and west and east Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, south Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

At least 317 die of heatwave in Telangana this summer

As many as 317 heatwave-related deaths have been reported in Telangana since the onset of the summer season till date, state disaster management department said on Tuesday.”These (317) deaths were confirmed by the three-member committee (set up to assess cases of heat-related deaths). Nalgonda District tops the chart with 91 deaths followed by Mahabubnagar with 44,” an official in the disaster management department’s control room said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Heatwave conditions are likely to prevail at isolated places in Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Medak, Nalgonda, Warangal and Khammam of Telangana state during next 72 hours, a weather bulletin from India Meteorological Department said.”No large change in maximum temperatures over Telangana. They were appreciably above normal at one or two places over Telangana. The highest maximum temperature of 45 degrees Celsius was recorded at Ramagundam,” the IMD said.Heatwave conditions prevailed in Karimnagar of Telangana today even as dry weather prevailed at all other places in the state, it added. The state government had earlier issued heatwave alerts to all the districts, asking them to take precautionary measures. The government had also announced Rs 50,000 ex-gratia to kin of each of the deceased.

After severe heat wave, IMD predicts drop in mercury, thunderstorms in several parts in next 48 hours

After a long spell of “severe heat wave”, India Meteorological Department has predicted maximum temperatures are likely to fall by 2-3 degrees Celsius over northwest and central India in the next 48 hours while forecasting thunderstorms in several parts of the country.However, the “heatwave” warning still persists for west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha for the next 48 hours.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>”Maximum temperatures are likely to fall by 2-3 degrees Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India during the next 48 hours.”Thunderstorm is also likely at isolated places over Delhi, Jammu division of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, West Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya,” the IMD said in its forecast.However, in coming days, with the effect of cyclone Roanu receding, states like Andhra Pradesh, Odisha are likely to again come under the spell of heat wave.”The (heat) intensity is likely to reduce thereafter and gradually abate during May 27 to 31. The maximum day and minimum night temperatures are likely to remain markedly above normal over entire northwest, west and central India during May 17 to 27. They are likely to fall to their respective normal or below normal values between May 27 and June 1,” the IMD said.IMD has also predicted “heavy rainfall” in the Andaman and Nicobar which was hit by southwest Monsoon on May 18.

Heavy rains lash Kerala, Tamil Nadu; water logging in few areas of Thiruvananthapuram

Heavy rains lashed various parts of central and southern districts of Kerala on Tuesday, causing water logging in few areas of Thiruvananthapuram.Rains and rough seas caused damage to hundreds of houses in coastal areas in the state capital, Alappuzha and Ernakulam districts.Directions were given to evacuate the people in low lying areas, where reports of houses being damaged have come in.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Relief camps have also been opened to shift the affected people in these areas.The meteorological centre here said heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala till May 19.The state disaster management authority said that heavy rain was due to the low pressure formed in the Bay of Bengal.Widespread rain was also witnessed across Tamil Nadu since early morning as the mercury took a dip of 26 degree Celsius.The Meteorological Department officials in Chennai said moderate to rather heavy rain was expected to occur at most places in all districts for the next 48 hours.Well-marked low pressure area over Sri Lanka and adjoining Gulf of Mannar in the South-West Bay of Bengal moved North Westwards and was concentrated into a depression about 240 kilometer South East of Chennai.The city weather officials said the system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression in the next two days and move in North West direction.In the last 24 hours, Nannilam in Tiruvarur district recorded the highest rainfall of 14 centimetres.Chembarampakkam near Chennai in Tiruvallur district registered 12 cm, Sirkali 11 cm and Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai and Kodavasal 10 cm each in the last 24 hours.Earlier predictions by the weather officials said that the depression would have a landfall this morning.However, the phenomenon has slowed down in its speed and is sea-bound now, bringing hopes for a bit longer period of rain in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Onset of monsoon over Kerala to be delayed by six days, now expected on June 7: IMD

Onset of monsoon over Kerala is likely to be delayed by six days beyond its scheduled date of June 1, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said its latest forecast on Sunday.This is expected to delay monsoon in other parts of the country as well.”Forecast suggests that monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be slightly delayed. The Southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on June 7 with a model error of plus or minus four days,” the IMD said in its onset forecast for monsoon, released today.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>June 1 is the official onset date of monsoon in India when it hits Kerala.Interestingly, forecast of monsoon onset issued during the past 11 years (from 2005-2015) except 2015 has proved to be correct. This includes the error margin of plus or minus 4 days.
ALSO READ Better monsoon forecast may improve India’s FY16 GDP growth marginally: Think tankIMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said the delay in the monsoon onset was not an “unusual” phenomenon.He, however, said there would be some relief to South Indian states from the intense heat as there could be some rainfaill in the coming days.
ALSO READ India can grow faster on good monsoon, global upturn: Arun Jaitley”Currently there is a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal which will become a depression and hit Tamil Nadu coast by tonight. This will bring good amount of rainfall to the state, parts of South Interior Karnataka and parts of Kerala,” Rathore said.Skymet, a private forecasting agency, in its forecast for monsoon onset, had said that monsoon will hit Kerala between May 28 and 30.The IMD has already made a forecast that monsoon will be “above normal” this year.

Medium intensity earthquake hits Assam, Meghalaya

A medium intensity earthquake measuring 4 on the Richter scale hit Assam and Meghalaya this afternoon.According to the India Meteorological Department’s website, the earthquake struck the region at 3:13 PM and it measured 4 on the Richter scale.The epicentre was at East Khasi Hills in Meghalaya at a depth of 10 km from the ground.No immediate report of any damage to property or injury to people has been received.Assam had experienced an earthquake measuring 3 on the Richter Scale last night.

Pre-monsoon showers bring relief, heat wave abates for now

After weeks of scorching heat that resulted in one of the warmest April on record, heat wave conditions have abated across most parts of the country and pre-monsoon showers were recorded in northern, eastern and a few central regions.On Thursday, the Met department’s weather warning indicated that barring Kerala no other state or region in the country was reeling under heat wave conditions that cause the day temperatures to rise 5-6 degrees above normal. Already, over 150 people have been killed due to the heat wave, especially in Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>On Wednesday and Thursday, rainfall occurred at many places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and Odisha too. Maharashtra and Gujarat though did not receive any pre-monsoon showers but may see some in the coming days. The abating heat wave brought down temperatures across the Gangetic plains and even in north India, the conditions were more comfortable even as temperatures remained high.Patna, Jamshedpur, Ranchi, Bankura, Gorakhpur and Varanasi in the Gangetic plains that had experienced record breaking heat in April all temperatures drop by 4-5 degrees.Met experts said that weather phenomenon such as western disturbance, cyclonic circulation and wind discontinuity have all resulted in bringing relief from the heat wave. “With soaring temperatures, a lot of moisture is drawn in and combined with favourable wind patterns, it has resulted in pre monsoon showers. A western disturbance over north India brought snowfall in J&K and rainfall in many places across north India, reducing temperatures. But, the relief is temporary and temperatures will rise again next week,” said DS Pai, director, long-range forecasting division, India Meteorological Department.Pai also added, “These pre-monsoon showers are nothing unusual and with temperatures rising high so early, they were bound to occur. Temperatures in April were one degree above normal in relation to the historical average.”

Killer heat wave grips Telangana taking death toll to 219

Heat wave conditions in some parts of Telangana continued to take toll as the number of deaths rose to 219 during the present summer season, according to the State Disaster Management department.”These 219 deaths were confirmed by the three-member committee. Nalgonda tops the list with 76 deaths followed by Mahbubnagar with 35,” an official in the Disaster Management control room said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The last count of 178 was reported yesterday.A bulletin from the India Meteorological Department said heat wave conditions are likely to prevail in some parts of Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Khammam districts.”Thunderstorm with squall/hail (is) likely (to occur) at a few places over Telangana during next 48 hours (today and tomorrow),” it said.Telangana has been witnessing severe heat wave during this summer season.The state government had earlier issued heat wave alerts to all the districts, to take precautionary measures.The government had also declared summer holidays for schools from April 16, which were actually scheduled from April 24, in view of the scorching sun.The government had also announced Rs 50,000 ex-gratia to kin of each of the deceased.

Heat wave claims 122 lives in Telangana this summer

As many as 122 heat-related deaths have been reported in Telangana since the beginning of the summer season, the state disaster management department said on Wednesday.The deaths have been reported till Wednesday, an official in the disaster management’s control room said.The state government had earlier directed the officials to initiate relief measures to the people.Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao is scheduled to hold a review with district collectors on April 29 on the drought conditions.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Heat wave conditions are likely to prevail over some parts in several districts in Telangana, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.”Heat wave conditions very likely to prevail over some parts in the districts of Adilabad, Hyderabad, Karimnagar, Khammam, Mahaboobnagar, Medak, Nalgonda, Nzamabad, Ranga Reddy and Warangal of Telangana,” it said in its heat wave warning for next two days.However, light to moderate rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at isolated places, it said in its weather forecast for the next five days.There has been an “appreciable” fall in maximum temperatures at one or two places. The highest maximum temperature of 44 degrees Celsius was recorded at Adilabad, Medak, Nalgonda, Nizamabad and Ramagundam.

Heat wave continues in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, no let-up expected

Hyderabad: There was no let up in the heat wave gripping Telangana and Andhra Pradesh on Monday while the met office has issued a warning of severe heat wave conditions for both the states for next two days.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that severe heat wave to heat wave conditions will prevail in all 10 districts of Telangana till 27 April.

It has made a similar forecast for all four districts of Rayalaseema and six out of nine districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The heat wave in both the states reeling under second successive drought has killed dozens of people, triggered drinking water scarcity and migration by farmers and agriculture labourers to towns.

“Severe heat wave to heat wave condition most likely to prevail over many parts in the districts of East Godavari, West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam and Nellore of coastal Andhra Pradesh and in the districts of Anantapur, Chittoor, Kadapa and Kurnool of Rayalaseema,” said the meteorological centre.

Representational image. PTIRepresentational image. PTI

Representational image. PTI

Khammam, Nalgonda and Ramagundam in Telangana sizzled at 45 degrees Celsius on Monday, while Badrachalam and Hanmkonda recorded 44 degrees.

Hyderabad is also in the grip of intense heat wave with mercury rising to 43 degrees Celsius. This is second time this month that the city recorded this temperature, the highest for April in over four decades. Mahabubnagar and Medak also recorded maximum temperature of 43 degrees.

Streets were deserted in many parts of the state, especially between 12 noon and 5 p.m. as hot winds forced people to remain indoors.

The state’s disaster management department remained silent on the number of deaths due to heat wave after confirming 66 deaths as on 2 April even as the unofficial reports say the harsh weather has claimed over 200 lives so far this season.

In the drought-hit Telangana, the children and the elderly were the worst-affected by the heat wave. Dozens of cases of sunstroke are being referred to government-run hospitals every day. The daily wage labourers, vendors, beggars and others living on the streets were the worst-hit.

Andhra Pradesh too had confirmed 45 deaths in the first week of April but since then the officials have not revised the toll.

The opposition parties in both the states claim that the governments are suppressing the deaths as they have to pay compensation to the families of the victims.

According to the met office, temple town of Tirupati in Rayalaseema and Jangamaheswarapuram in coastal Andhra recorded maximum temperature of 46 degree Celsius during last 24 hours. Nellore and Nandyal too sizzled at 45. It was 44 in Nandigama, Kadapa and Kurnool.

Killer heat wave: Bengaluru breaks 85-year-old record for April with 39.2 degree Celsius temperature

Reeling under sizzling heat, Bengaluru has recorded the highest ever maximum temperature for April in 85 years at 39.2 degree Celsius and is hotter than Delhi in the last five days.”Today, we have recorded the highest-ever maximum temperature of 39.2 degree Celsius for the month of April. It has broken the previous all-time record of 38.3 degree, recorded on April 30, 1931,” Meteorological Regional Observatory Director-in-Charge Geeta Agnihotri told reporters.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>”This time Bengaluru is hotter than Delhi. Its temperature is in the range of 37 degree Celsius, and we (Bengaluru) have been recording 38 degrees for the last four to five days,” she said.”It (Bengaluru) has surpassed the highest-ever value of 38.9 degree Celsius that was recorded on May 22, 1931. This observatory has been recording temperature from 1867,” she said.For the last couple of days, she said, Bengaluru has been recording maximum temperature of 3-4 degrees above normal. Giving reasons for Karnataka experiencing sizzling heat, Agnihotri said it is due to very strong El Nino conditions recorded in 2015 in the subcontinent and absence of convective activity.”There is an increase in the temperature throughout the state due to very strong El Nino conditions, which were there in 2015, and this global phenomena is affecting the Indian subcontinent throughout,” she said.El Nino is warming of the Pacific Ocean as part of a complex cycle linking atmosphere and ocean. It sees a huge release of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, which can disrupt weather patterns around the world.”Even the Indian Meteorological Department had forecast higher than normal temperatures during summer seasons sometime on March 31,” she said.”There is a complete absence of convective activity in the atmosphere, which has led to rising temperatures, forcing the rains to play truant in this season”, she said.Giving reason for the absence of convective activity, Agnihotri said it is due to lack of moisture over land areas.”The absence of convective activity is because of lack of moisture over land areas. So, the two anti-cyclones in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, positioned during this season is unable to pump in sufficient moisture over the land area. As a result, there is no rains and therefore, the temperature is continuously increasing,” she said.

Severe heat wave grips western districts of West Bengal

Severe heat wave prevailed in the western districts of West Bengal on Saturday with Bankura recording the maximum at 47 degree Celsius and the Met office not predicting any rainfall in the next 48 hours.Severe heat wave gripped Birbhum (44 degrees C), Burdwan (42.3 degrees C) and West Midnapur (45 degrees C) districts while Nadia, Murshidabad, Howrah, Purulia districts witnessed heat wave conditions with mercury touching 43 degrees C.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>While Sriniketan recorded 44 degrees C, it was 43 degrees in Krishnanagar and 39 degrees C in Malda. Kolkata recorded a maximum of 38.5 degrees C while neighbouring Dumdum saw temperature rise to 40.6 degrees C, the Met office said. “There was no large change in today’s maximum temperatures over the region. Those were appreciably markedly above normal at most places over Gangetic West Bengal. “The situation is absolutely not favourable. There is no forecast of any rains in the region in the next 48 hours. The severe heat wave is very likely to continue in Bankura, Birbhum and Burdwan districts. Heat wave is likely to continue in West Midnapur, Nadia, Murshidabad, Howrah and Purulia districts,” Regional Meteorological Centre Director G C Debnath told PTI.It will be sultry weather in the city with the maximum and minimumetan temperature likely around 39 degrees C and 28 degrees C respectively, he added.

Heat wave claims 49 lives in Telangana

Heat wave in Telangana has so far claimed 49 lives and there seems no respite from soaring mercury as the hot weather is likely to prevail at few places in the state for at least two days, a Disaster Management department official said on Saturday.”Till yesterday, we have reports that 49 persons died due to heat wave in the state (during this summer season),” the official told PTI.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Mahabubnagar district topped the chart of heat-related deaths at 39.Temperature has been hovering above 40 degrees Celsius in most parts of the state since last fortnight prompting the government to issue a heat wave alert in all districts.The government had announced Rs 50,000 as ex-gratia to the kin of those who died due to sun stroke.According to a bulletin issued by India Meteorological Department today, heat wave conditions are likely to prevail at a few places in Telangana today and tomorrow.”Appreciable rise in maximum temperatures is recorded at one or two places over Telangana. They were markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana,” it stated.The highest maximum temperature of 45 deg Celsius was recorded at Bhadrachalam, Khammam, Nalgonda and Nizamabad.The Met report further said that rains occurred at one or two places in the state.In view of the weather conditions, the government had advanced summer holidays for schools to April 16 from scheduled date of April 24.The government has also launched a web portal for heat wave predictions and necessary resources available at respective places in case of emergency.Telangana Deputy Chief Minister (in charge of Revenue) Mahmood Ali had earlier said that Medical and Health department has advised to keep sufficient stocks of ORS and IV fluids in all hospitals to cater to patients in the event of sun strokes.

Maharashtra: Heat wave claims first victim in Nagpur

Notorious for being one of the hottest places in India, Nagpur saw its first victim of soaring temperatures on Friday afternoon.33-year-old Mangesh Kavane was a native of Besa and used to drive an autorickshaw in Manewada. He was participating in a Ram Navmi event organised in the area. Around 2 pm, while serving drinks, he reportedly fainted and collapsed on the ground. Suspecting it to be a case of heat stroke, friends took him to a nearby hospital. However, he succumbed to death around 4 pm during treatment.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The mercury touched 44.2 degrees Celsius in Nagpur district on Friday, while the neighbouring district Wardha registered 45 degrees Celsius on the scale.According to the Indian Meteorological Department warning, Vidarbha will face a heat wave at isolated places. The weather forecast also suggests the same condition to prevail for the next 15 days.

Heat wave sweeps India: IMD had little comfort to offer, says more blazing days ahead

New Delhi: Heat wave conditions prevailed in several parts of the country on Friday with the temperature soaring several notches above the season’s average, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had little comfort to offer, saying the searing heat conditions will continue for the next few days.

According to the IMD, the heat wave will continue in Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu over the next two days.

According to the nationwide forecast by the IMD on Friday, the minimum temperatures have been markedly above normal at a few places over West Rajasthan, which means these were more than 5 degrees Celsius above season’s average.

Representational image. AFP

Representational image. AFP

In most other parts of the country, the temperatures have been recorded either “appreciably above normal”, which means it was between 3 to 5 degrees “above normal”, or “above average”, which is 1.6 to 3 degrees more than season’s average temperature.

The highest maximum temperature of 44.3 degrees Celsius was recorded at Anantapur in Andhra Pradesh in the country.

Director of Skymet private weather forecasting agency Mahesh Palawat told IANS the heat wave will continue with the temperature rising and a change in the direction of winds.

“The temperature is going to increase as the direction of winds has changed from northwest to southwest direction, that is from Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh to Gujarat, Rajasthan,” Palawat told IANS.

“The pre-monsoon showers have also been delayed, and the temperature is likely to hover around 42 degrees Celsius to 43 degrees Celsius,” Palawat said.

In Delhi, the maximum temperature surged to 40.1 degrees Celsius, three notches above the season’s average.

The Met Office has issued heat wave warnings for Telangana and Rayalaseema regions of Andhra Pradesh for two more days.

According to the Hyderabad Meteorological Centre, the maximum temperature at most places is likely to be between 40 and 45 degrees Celsius.

In Odisha, intense heat wave continued on Friday with 17 regions recording temperature above 40 degrees Celsius while several deaths were reported due to sunstroke.

In Uttar Pradesh, heat wave conditions intensified in most parts, and the IMD said the state is witnessing one of the “highest day temperatures over the past three years”.

The soaring temperature and heat wave have claimed many lives across the country, with the toll crossing 130, according to figures given by state governments.

Punjab, Odisha, West Bengal to witness heatwave like conditions next week: IMD

Night temperatures for the next week will be higher than normal, the India Meteorological Centre (IMD) on Thursday said.Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra, Telangana, parts of Rayalseema, East and west Rajasthan, Delhi and NCR region, Punjab and Haryana, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal are likely to witness heatwave like conditions, the IMD said in a statement.”Most parts of India are likely to experience warmer than normal night temperatures during April 12-21, outside the northwestern parts (Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir) which are likely to remain near normal during April 12 to 21,” the IMD said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency said most parts of the country are reeling under intense heatwave conditions.”Heatwave has started to grip parts of Peninsular India including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Marathwada, Vidarbha and isolated pockets of Karnataka.”Temperatures have been above the 40 degrees mark at several places. For instance, Titlagarh in Odisha recorded its maximum as 45 degree Celsius, and Nalgonda in Andhra Pradesh sizzled at 44 degree Celsius. Also, Hyderabad observed its maximum at 43 degree Celsius which is the highest in 43 years.Now, Northwest India which was observing lower maximums as compared to East and Central India is also likely to get under the grip of intense heatwave conditions, Skymet said.

IMD forecast brings what everyone wants: Above average rains

On Tuesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that, following two successive drought years, the country is likely to receive above-normal southwest monsoon rains from June to September that will be widespread and evenly distributed.The 2016 forecast will bring cheer to the parched regions of the country, especially in central India, where people are currently facing an acute drinking water crisis. Eleven states in the country have declared drought.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>As per the long-range forecast, quantitatively, rainfall during the monsoon season is likely to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of +/- 5.The IMD categorises rainfall in the 96-104% LPA range as normal and rainfall between 104-110% of LPA as above normal.Last year, the El Niño weather phenomenon – marked by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in Pacific Ocean – that causes droughts in South Asia was quite strong, leading to a 14.3% monsoon deficit in 2015.According to IMD’s forecast, El Nino had peaked in December 2015 and is likely to weaken during the first half of this monsoon season.”El Nino, which was one of the major factors behind poor rainfall last year, will weaken soon. The rainfall this year will be widespread and well distributed. Marathwada and Vidarbha will also receive good rainfall while only North-East may receive below-normal rainfall. We are carefully monitoring the sea-surface temperatures of the Pacific and Indian oceans,” said Laxman Singh Rathore, director general, IMD.Based on the historical data of 1951-2009, the country receives an average seasonal rainfall of 890mm during the monsoon season.The IMD forecast also said that the probability of a normal monsoon is 30%, above-normal monsoon 34% and excess monsoon 30%. Effectively, there is a 94% probability of normal to excess monsoon this year.Currently, the Marathwada region in Maharashtra is facing an unprecedented drinking water crisis. In 2015, 39% of the country recorded below-normal rainfall and it was the first time after 1986-87 that the country witnessed a successive below-par monsoon.

Above normal monsoon in 2016: IMD’s good news ends drought of hope in India

Easing fears over farm and economic growth after two consecutive years of drought, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted “above normal” monsoon this year.

“Monsoon rains will be above long-period average this year and the El Nino conditions will be seen diminishing by June and July,” IMD said, adding that it will come out with the second stage of prediction in June.

Releasing its monsoon forecast for the season, IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said, “Monsoon will be 106 percent of the long period average (LPA). There is 94 percent probability that monsoon will be normal to excess this year. By and large, there will be fair distribution of monsoon across the country. But North-East India and South-East India, particularly Tamil Nadu, may get slightly less than normal rainfall.”

Representational image. Reuters

Representational image. Reuters

Drought-hit Marathwada is also likely to receive “good” rainfall, Rathore added.

Anything less than 90 percent of the LPA is termed as a “deficient” monsoon and 90-96 percent of the LPA is considered as “below normal”. Monsoon is considered as “normal” if the LPA is between 96-104 percent of the LPA.

“Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as “excess”.

Agriculture, which contributes 15 per cent to India’s GDP and employs about 60 per cent of the country’s population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation.

Due to poor monsoon in 2015-16 crop year (July-June), 10 states have declared drought and the Centre has sanctioned relief package of about Rs 10,000 crore to help farmers.

The forecast, which comes after two straight years of drought – is likely to boost the farm sector, which has been weighed down by subdued agriculture output and falling farmers’ income.

Two back-to-back monsoon failures, 2015 being the hottest year on record, poor post-monsoon rain, an alarming depletion of reservoirs and a heat wave that’s forecast to continue and even intensify — all this has changed the country’s water economics drastically for farmers, households, businesses and hydropower.

Monsoon IMD

On Monday India’s only private weather forecaster Skymet, said that the annual monsoon rains are likely to be above average, snapping two straight years of drought that cut farm output and farmers’ income. The July to September monsoon delivers nearly 70 percent of annual rains and waters half of India’s farmlands that lack irrigation facilities.

Monsoon rains are expected to be 105 percent above a long-term average, with a 35 percent probability of above average rainfall, Skymet had said in a statement. The El Nino effect is likely to wane after monsoon hits the southern Kerala coast by the end of May, the statement said.

Southwest monsoon chartSouthwest monsoon chartEl Nino, or warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can lead to scorching weather conditions across Asia and east Africa, but heavy rains and floods in South America.

India’s west coast and central parts will get good rains, Skymet said, bringing in relief for farmers and policy makers, who are struggling with droughts and severe water scarcity in some regions.

Above average monsoon rains play a key role in boosting demand for an array of consumer goods, as 70 percent of India’s 1.3 billion people live in villages.

Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of India’s $2 trillion economy, Asia’s third-biggest, but it supports two-thirds of Indian’s population.

State-run India Meteorological Department is expected to issue its forecast for this year’s monsoon rains soon.

Separately, Farm Secretary Shobhana K Pattanayak said current climatic conditions indicate that El Nino is gradually fading and giving way to La Nina, indicating bountiful rains this year.

Do you think summer is already too hot to handle? It is only going to get hotter

While people are finding it difficult to cope with the heat, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first summer forecast earlier this month. According to the report, harsh summer is yet to begin.In its first ever summer forecast IMD has indicated how summer, that is April to June, is going to see severe heatwaves.Already heatwave condition has enveloped the eastern and central regions of India.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>What does the forecast say?According to IMD’s forecast, the Northwest and Central regions of India are expected to be warmer than normal, with the average temperature rising more than 1 degree Celsius. Even an average 1 degree rise in temperature could mean that there is an increasing trend in the frequency and duration of heatwaves in the country. The duration is said to go longer with significantly harsher intensity.
ALSO READ IMD forecasts a harsh, warmer than normal summer aheadIndia being divided into 36 meteorological sub-divisions, the report suggests that warmer than normal temperature should be expected in all of the subdivisions.This means, if North India has an average temperature of 38 degree Celsius, we can easily expect to boil at 39-42 degree Celsius.
ALSO READ In a first, IMD to issue ‘summer forecast’This is not all, the forecast also pointed out while we were waiting for the winters to arrive, January and February had seen temperatures which were above normal (1.5 degree Celsius and 2 degree Celsius respectively.)What are heatwaves?A heatwave is supposed to exist when the maximum temperature of a place exceeds its normal temperature by four to six degree Celsius. A heatwave can be accompanied by severe humidity, high temperatures at night, and many catastrophic-like conditions such as droughts which further causes loss of life.​Causes of heatwavesSo what causes the temperature to rise to almost 4 degrees Celsius above normal? There are a couple of things.
ALSO READ Odisha readies pioneering action plan to combat deadly summer heatFirstly, the entire trend of heatwaves is said to rise due to greenhouse gas emissions. It hold the heat in the atmosphere and hence your surrounding temperature is said to rise.The temperature of water in the oceans gives a rise to the humidity in the area and hence, the temperature is affected.That is not just all, El Nino is said to be one of the major reasons we are facing warmer summers. As per IMD records 1973, 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2010 saw harsh summers and were preceded by El Nino.Effects of heatwaves – Harsh summer, harsh realityIndia is facing one of the major droughts in Maharashtra currently. It does not end there, people are dying because of the Ganges drying up. Loss of life due to extensive heat is going upscale.Consider Bhubaneshwar, where on Monday the city was boiling at 45.8 degree Celsius. The city had not seen such a high temperature in 30 years now. The 2015 severe heatwave over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and neighbouring districts saw over 2500 people lose their lives.What to expect?Realistically, harsher summers and temperatures soaring higher than what they are currently is something we must prepare ourselves for. But, considering the decline of El Nino, government and other agencies expect a normal monsoon this year. This will be a sigh of relief for the water crisis in the country.We just need to wait till monsoon arrives.

India’s 2016 monsoon rains estimated to be above average: Skymet

India’s annual monsoon rains are likely to be above average, the country’s only private weather forecaster said on Monday, snapping two straight years of drought that cut farm output and farmers’ income.

The July to September monsoon delivers nearly 70 percent of annual rains and waters half of India’s farmlands that lack irrigation facilities.

Chennai Rain_West Mambalam_Tarique Anwar_Firstpost_DSC_0006Chennai Rain_West Mambalam_Tarique Anwar_Firstpost_DSC_0006

Monsoon rains are expected to be 105 percent above a long-term average, with a 35 percent probability of above average rainfall, Skymet said in a statement.

The El Nino effect is likely to wane after monsoon hits the southern Kerala coast by the end of May, the statement said.

El Nino, or warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can lead to scorching weather conditions across Asia and east Africa, but heavy rains and floods in South America.

India’s west coast and central parts will get good rains, Skymet said, bringing in relief for farmers and policy makers, who are struggling with droughts and severe water scarcity in some regions.

Above average monsoon rains play a key role in boosting demand for an array of consumer goods, as 70 percent of India’s 1.3 billion people live in villages.

Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of India’s $2 trillion economy, Asia’s third-biggest, but it supports two-thirds of Indian’s population.

State-run India Meteorological Department is expected to issue its forecast for this year’s monsoon rains soon.

Separately, Farm Secretary Shobhana K. Pattanayak said current climatic conditions indicate that El Nino is gradually fading and giving way to La Nina, indicating bountiful rains this year.

Over 65 die of sunstroke since onset of summer in Telangana

As many as 66 people have died of sunstroke in Telangana so far since the onset of summer season this year, with temperature breaching the 40-degree mark at several places, the state government said.Mahabubnagar, the state’s largest district, accounted for the highest number of 28 deaths, followed by Medak (11), Nizamabad (7), Khammam and Karimnagar (five each), Adilabad and Warangal (four each) and Nalgonda (two), an official release said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Telangana has been witnessing high temperatures for several days now and the highest maximum temperature of 43 degrees Celsius was recorded at Nalgonda during the last 24 hours till this morning, a release from the Meteorological office said.Hyderabad and other towns in the state have also witnessed temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius, it added.

India to receive a little more than normal rainfall this year

India will experience a little more than normal rainfall this monsoon, according to a forecast by a weather risk management company.”As per our models, India will receive more than normal rainfall this year. June is expected to receive fairly good rainfall, around 25% more than the normal limit,” said Kanti Prasad, senior consultant (climate sciences), Weather Risk Management Services Ltd.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>In June, the country is expected a receive 25% more rainfall than normal. Rainfall will start receding thereafter but will remain within the parameters of “normal monsoon”, he said.Northeast India, however, may not receive good rainfall, he said.”Generally, the trend is when the entire India receives good rainfall, the northeastern part does not receive good rainfall,” Prasad added.The India Meteorological Department is expected to come out with its forecast later this month. It has indicated a good rainfall this year with the weakening of El-Nino.

Hottest day recorded in Kashmir in 76 years

Kashmir witnessed the hottest day in February in 76 years as the mercury rose to 20.6 degrees Celsius in Srinagar on Tuesday, more than 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.”Srinagar had recorded a high of 20.6 degrees Celsius in the month of February in 1940. After a gap of 76 years, the same temperature was recorded yesterday,” Director local Meteorological department Sonum Lotus told PTI. <!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>He said the maximum temperature is presently 11 degrees above normal and is expected to rise further due to clear skies. However, he said a minor variation in the weather condition can change the trend. “So far it is the highest day temperature in the last 76 years in the month of February,” he said.Kashmir Valley is witnessing bright winter sunshine giving a feel of early arrival of spring which usually starts at the end of March. The sprouting of plants and blooming of some flower varieties — signs of spring in Kashmir — have started at least one month ahead of the natural process due to the early favourable temperature.The development has become a source of concern for environmentalists who see it as an effect of climate change. Apart from occasional snowfall ranging from moderate to heavy in the high altitude areas in the Valley, the plains, including summer capital, Srinagar, virtually witnessed a snow-less winter, much to the concern of the farming community especially the orchardists.The farmers are concerned that below average snowfall and rains are expected to have an impact on farming activities in the coming months and early blooming might result in shortfall in produce as the fruit yielding flowers are weak and cannot survive if hit by inclement weather.Srinagar experienced brief spells of snowfall on two occasions in the past two months but there was no accumulation of snow. The ‘Chilai Kalan’, the 40-day harsh period of winter which begins on December 21, not only remained mostly dry but also saw mercury settle at several degrees above normal temperatures.

In a first, IMD to issue ‘summer forecast’

For the first time, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will be issuing a full-scale summer forecast on the lines of its annual monsoon forecast, top-ranked officials in the Union ministry of earth sciences told dna. Officials also said that the country will witness a “severe summer” this year as it comes on the back of the strongest El-Nino in nearly two decades. The decision to issue a ‘summer forecast’ is part of the IMD’s larger plan to put out more information and special data for the public at large. Last month, dna had reported that IMD will be coming out with colour-coded warnings for forecasts.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>The country will see its first ‘summer forecast’ in March end. “We have decided to issue the summer forecast beginning this year. The forecast will give out information on how far above the temperatures will be in relation to the average temperatures. It (forecast) will give an outlook for the months of April, May and June which is categorised as the pre-monsoon season in meteorological terms,” said M Nair Rajeevan, secretary, Union ministry of earth sciences.While the annual monsoon forecast primarily gives an outlook of the southwest monsoon performance during the June-September period, the summer forecast will present the average temperatures during the April-June period along with IMD’s predictions. “We will indicate the average and forecasted temperatures for each region and later every five days we will put out a forecast for the next fortnight, known as extended range forecast,” Rajeevan added. The fortnightly predictions during summer will be graphically presented on the country’s map in a colour-coded format.In 2015, the country saw one of the worst heat waves in nearly two decades with 2,500 deaths recorded. Andhra Pradesh alone accounted for 1,735 deaths followed by neighbouring Telangana that recorded 585 deaths.Temperatures in 2015 summer were routinely six-seven degrees above normal in the range of 43-50 degree Celsius. “Even this year, we are going to witness a severe summer as it comes on the back of one of the strongest El-Nino. Although El-Nino will recede in a couple of months, occurrence of freak events such as hailstorms, unseasonal rains cannot be ruled out,” said Rajeevan.El Nino is a weather phenomenon wherein there is warming of central and eastern Pacific Ocean and it has been established that these conditions cause droughts in south Asia, extremely heavy rainfall in South America and other such extreme weather events in different parts of the world.In recent years, the IMD is using the dynamic model for forecasting weather systems as against the statistical model used in the past. To add to this, IMD is also equipped with more automatic weather stations, weather observatories, rain gauges and radars to make more specific forecasts down to block or tehsil level.

Nagpur records lowest temperature in 5 decades, mercury drops to 5.1 degrees Celsius

Nagpur on Saturday recorded the coldest day in nearly five decades with the mercury plunging to 5.1 degrees Celsius, the Regional Meteorological Centre here said.Gondia, which was the coldest in the Vidarbha region on Friday with 6.5 degrees Celsius, today saw the mercury further plummet by one notch to reach 5.5 degrees Celsius.Though the entire Vidarbha region had been experiencing extreme cold for the past three days, there was slight rise in temperatures at some places but there was no respite from cold breeze, the MET department said.<!– /11440465/Dna_Article_Middle_300x250_BTF –>Nagpur had recorded a minimum temperature of 5.3 degrees Celsius on Jan 10 last year, but today’s low of 5.1 degrees Celsius is the lowest in nearly five decades, it said.Other places in Vidarbha region which recorded low temperature include Akola (9.5 degrees Celsius), Amravati (9.4 degrees Celsius), Bramhapuri 11.2 (degrees Celsius), Chandrapur (9.2 degrees Celsius), Gondia (5.5 degrees Celsius), Wardha (7.4 degrees Celsius) and Yavatmal (10 degrees Celsius).The cold wave is likely to remain for some time, the weatherman said.

20 people injured in Assam as earthquake hits Northeast, buildings develop cracks

A major earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7 on the Richter Scale rocked Eastern and North-Eastern parts of India early today, the Indian Meteorological Department said. The quake occurred at 4.35 am at a depth of 17 km below the ground and the epicentre is located at Tamenglong of Manipur.

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